Fearless Predictions 2011

Written January 2011
By Cliff Feldwick

Another year, another opportunity to act as village sage or village idiot, depending on how well the technological crystal ball foretells all. Fortunately, no one keeps track.

The Chrome OS from Google will be like a balloon with the air escaping – it will fly around, make a lot of noise, get people excited, then end up flat.

Hey, I like Google. Innovative, adventurous – as in not afraid to try things and spend money to acquire or develop as needed, often hip. A cool company. And their Chrome web browser is fast. But developing a new computer operating system is a bigger gamble, and unlikely to work, if displacing Windows is your definition of success. It certainly would be mine. Even taking a chunk of Windows predominance would be quite a feat. But it isn’t likely, hon. Remember when Wal-Mart and some others brought out some inexpensive computers with Linux as their operating system? Nope – nobody else does either. Let’s face it – when you’re shopping for software, or just downloading something to try, the choice is usually Windows or Mac. Maybe a small (very small) percentage will have a Linux option. So unless Google goes about developing all the applications that people will want, it won’t get anywhere. And OpenOffice (the free Office alternative), even if made available for Chrome, will not displace Word or Excel, and Microsoft certainly isn’t going to make them available. So Google has a hard road ahead on this one, no matter how much fuss the computer magazines make over it.

Oh, and there’s lots of buzz about Google’s CR-48 notebook computer. Mostly it’s about how cool it looks and how it hooks to “the cloud” to do everything, including word processing with Google Docs, etc. Well, it has to – there’s no CD or DVD drive and no regular Ethernet port, which means its wireless or nothing. And your thumb drives and external hard drives won’t work with it either. So you have a “Google or nothing” machine that only works where you have good internet access. Maybe that’s fine for the tech geeks in Silicone Valley, but far too limited for most users.

TeachParentsTech.org will catch on (a little) but still won’t cut it

Yes, that’s the name of a website (started by Google – one of the reasons I call them innovative) that’s dedicated to the idea that saving you from explaining (again) to your mom how to attach a photo to an email will help your sanity.

You can choose from many different tasks, like changing wallpaper or using online calendars, add a note and email the link to anyone you choose (your parents being the intended audience), and it will show a video on how to do it. They’re pretty simple (one of the plusses) and almost overly “just like us” friendly (one of the video instructors, an early twenties type, has a noticeable case of acne that wasn’t – maybe deliberately – covered over).

But – here’s the rub – it assumes that your folks will watch an on-line show and learn from it. Maybe overly optimistic. And it really over-emphasizes Google products (what a shock). For instance, its video on “how to make an online phone call” uses Gmail’s dialer, and doesn’t even mention Skype, the massive leader in the field. So while it may be interesting, it probably won’t stop Mom from calling (on her Princess phone).

Despite constant rumors, you’ll still be stuck with AT&T on your iPhone

Who is it today? I mean what company is rumored to be next for iPhone’s blessing of compatibility and access? Sprint? We’ve heard that one before. Verizon? Probably the most consistent rumor out there. But I’m betting that these will continue to be just rumors. Who knows what incentives the Death Star (that’s AT&T – doesn’t their logo remind you of the ship in Star Wars?) has given Apple to stay wedded to them, but its working so far. And since there are so many alternatives in Blackberry and Droids, there’s no reason for the antitrust people to care in the slightest.

GPS’s will finally die

 Yes, they’re getting cheaper and cheaper. But your phone probably has a GPS, and the proliferation of options will put the GPS manufacturers out of business soon enough, and the updates you need along with them.

Netflix will finally kill Blockbuster

 It’s everywhere! Built-in in new TV sets, on Blu-Ray players, on your Wii, on Apple TV set top boxes. There’s no stopping Netflix. So Blockbuster can say they have movies earlier than Netflix, but most of us will say “So what?” Netflix has adapted better than anyone to new market conditions and firmly positioned themselves as a leader. Like Erols before it, Blockbuster will one day just disappear.